So the badminton draw for the Tokyo 2021 (officially 2020) Olympics has finally been made. This isn’t just some usual BWF sanctioned tournament. This is the one every player wants to win. Even above World Championships. The chance to be an Olympic champion comes around only once in a career for some players!
What makes the Olympics particularly interesting is such a large pool of countries and players. While we really expect the usual suspects to make the quarter-finals and beyond, the draws can create tricky situations, even for the best players to navigate and create some early upsets.
That being said, here’s my take on some of the draws in each category. I won’t be able to go through all of the groups but I will highlight where I think there will be particularly interesting battles.
Competition Format
The draws for the badminton competition symbolise the first stages of the tournament for the badminton players. The badminton format is a little confusing. Group B and O don’t exist confusingly in the singles events. Well less confusing if you read the Olympic Games Regulations For Badminton Competition…which I still find a little confusing.
Singles
Ultimately, the table below shows the knock out stages for the singles tournaments. The winner of each group in singles will go on to play in the knock out stages. Where certain groups do not exist (such as B & O), the respective players will get a bye. So for example, Kento Momota and Chou Tien Chen would get a bye if they top their respective groups (A & P) as B and O do not exist.
Check out my predictions for singles here!
Doubles
In doubles, it works a little differently. There are four groups of four pairs, with the top two pairs of each group going through to the knockout stage. At this point, the winners of each group are separated into the tournament tree as below:
The remaining four pairs are randomly drawn. This means that one of the winners of the group could potentially face opponents they were grouped with previously. The idea of this random draw is to avoid the London 2012 fiasco where players played for a favourable next round, knowing their opponents.
Ok hopefully that was relatively straightforward, let’s check out the draws!
Men’s Singles
This is the only discipline in which a defending gold medalist (Chen Long) is participating. In group A Kento Momota looks to be in a strong position to win his group. I can’t see any real competition for him at the early stages.
On paper, Ng Ka Long (group C), looks like the winner of his group. However, Kevin Cordon is a fighter. He has beaten Chen Long in the past. However, this will be a tall order for the Guatemalan player, who is seven years older than Ng. But the four-time Olympian hasn’t given up his racket just yet! He is a fighter and on the day could prove himself a dark horse at the group stages.
Viktor Axelsen should have little problems in his group (E). In Group G however, Jonatan Christie finds himself with Loh Kean Yew. The Singaporean, while relatively less successful in the big tournaments, has been known to create waves. Notably in the Thailand Open 2019, beating Wang Tzu Wei (Group F) and Brice Leverdez (Group M) and impressively Lin Dan in the final.
Speaking of Brice Leverdez, he’s no stranger to causing a few upsets himself, famously outing Lee Chong Wei in the 2017 World Championships. And in this Olympics, he finds himself with another Malaysia – Lee Zii Jia. The Malaysian has really come into his own and having won the All England 2021 – I’m sure he will come into this tournament in top form.
A special mention has to go to Nguyễn Tiến Minh. The 38-year-old is really the epitome of longevity and a pillar of sport in his home country of Vietnam. He might struggle to beat Anton Antonsen, a player 14 years his junior, but there’s no doubt he will give it his all.
Womens Singles
In women’s singles, there’s also a group B missing. It seems to be a pretty straight run for most of the seeded players but big events like the Olympics are infamous for sporting upsets. While the women’s singles discipline has been perhaps the most versatile and open of all the categories in recent years, this has pretty much been exclusive to the top ten seeds. And perhaps more so the top five. It certainly would be no surprise if the Gold medalist came out of the top 5 players.
One group I have my eye on is group N. Soniia Cheah could put up a good fight against Ratchanok Intanon. Likewise in group L, we have the fighter, Kirsty Gilmore. Mahoor Shahzad also finds herself in the same group, which should be an interesting match up with the Scot!
Men’s Doubles
There’s no doubt that Kevin Sanjaya and Marcus Fernaldi Gideon will be the pair everyone has expectations of to win their group. However, they are in a fairly tough group with Taiwan’s Yang and Wang and India’s Shetty and Rankireddy. However, they boast positive win-loss ratios against both pairs. Great Britains Lane and Vendy I don’t think have enough top-level experience to be a threat in this group, but you never know what could happen!
Some badminton fans were calling group A the group of death, But honestly, group C is the only group that I can say very confidently who the top two pairs will be. This is not to take away from the Germans or Americans, but statistics and performance dictate who are clearly the strongest two pairs in that group.
The other groups have at least three very strong pairs who could make the top two. Group B has home favourites Watanabe and Endo. My favourite pair and the pair I think will win that group. But I believe there will be an interesting battle for second place with the Russians and the Danish. While you might favour the Danish, the Russians have proven before that they are a force to be reckoned with. Having previously won the All England and 2021 European championships.
In group D, veterans Setiawan and Ahsan find themselves facing the Malaysians Chia and Yik as well as Koreans Solgyu and Seungjae. The Indonesians still proving that their age counts for little, being ranked two in the world. The Malaysians are a fast-improving pair, having been in the finals of the 2019 All England where they lost to the daddies. Meanwhile, the Koreans have previously beaten the Indonesians in the Hong Kong Open in 2019 so this group is set up for some interesting battles.
Women’s Doubles
Two Japanese pairs represent the host country. The number one and three seeds help to improve the chances of Japanese gold, but they both need to win their group in order to avoid meeting in the first round of the knockout stages. However, this looks like it will be an easier task for the number three seeds than the number one seeds.
In Group A, Hirota and Fukushima will face the Indonesians Rahayu and Polii. This will prove to be a tough battle, given the Indonesian’s quality. They have previously beaten the Malaysians in the same group and I don’t think the Brits will cause too much of an issue for them. We can’t rule out any potential upsets, but on balance you would expect the Japanese and Indonesians to top their group. In which order though we will have to see.
Group C features the number four seeds Sohee and Seungchan. They are grouped with Chinese paring Yue and Yin Hui, who were finalists at the All England 2020 and Fruergaard/Thygesen of Denmark. The Danes are an improving pair, recently finalists at the Indonesian Open 2020. I think between these three pairs, Like with the Japanese, the Chinese will aim to come top of both groups C and D to avoid them facing each other in the initial knock out stages. The Australians no doubt will come out in fighting form but at the moment, I don’t think have what it takes to compete with the top levels in their group right now.
Group D is probable the WD group of death. The number two seeds Qing Chen and Yi Fan are consistent finalists in BWF World Tour Tournament. However, they face strong opposition in the name of the Stoeva sisters who have the ability to be giant killers on their day. Soyeong and Heeyong are another Korean pair who will look to finish top of the group. Another pair of consistent finalists who in my opinion are just as strong as their higher-ranked colleagues and will cause real problems for the Chinese. Lastly, the Thai pair have not beaten the Chinese pair thus far in their career. However, their win-loss ratio against the Bulgarians is pretty close (3-4) and have beaten the Koreans in the past.
Mixed Doubles
Last but not least, we have mixed doubles. The number one seeds look have to a favourable group. The Chinese pair, prior to Covid, were the most consistent pair in mixed doubles and the most dominant. One pair that could cause them problems are Seungjae and Chae Yujung. Chae Yujung paired with Choi Sol-Gyu previously to beat Siwei and Ya Qiong in the 2017 Sudirman cup finals but has never beaten them within this pairing.
Group B hosts two strong European pairs. In my opinion, the French pairing of Gicquel and Delrue is a very strong pair and should not be underestimated. However, they do lack some consistency in their game. Something I’m sure they’ve worked hard on in the run-up to the Olympics. Marcus Ellis and Lauren Smith of Britain also make an appearance in this group and are strong favourites to finish in the top two. The pairing of Puavaranukroh/Taerattanachai carries Thailands hopes in the mixed doubles. They have gone from strength to strength over the past few years proving they can beat the best.
Group C looks like a juicy one. Jordan and Oktivianti head the group as the highest seeds but they face stiff competition, particularly from Watanabe and Higashino. They have an equal head to head record and the Japanese do have home advantage. In addition, while the Danish pair have never beaten the Japanese, Mathias Christiansen has beaten the Indonesians with a more experienced partner (Christina Pedersen).
Group D pits the second-ranked Chinese pair along with the likes of Olympic silver medalists Chan Peng Soon and Liu Ying and Hong Kongers Chun Man/Ying Suet. The Chinese boast a positive head to head across all the pairs in their group and the Hong Kongers have a positive win-loss ratio against the Malaysians. The Germans could also be a thorn in the side of both the Hong Kong pair and Malaysians. I would find it difficult to call second place in this group.
Conclusion
There you have it! A summary of the group stages. All in all the singles in both the men and women’s discipline should be a relatively straightforward affair for the top seeds. However, the tournament will really open up in the last 16.
In the doubles, it looks to be a much tighter event initially, given the smaller number of pairs and groups. There may be some upsets along the way here! In particular, the mixed doubles looks like there will be some spectacular matches.
Remember this is the Olympics! There is even less room for error at these events. The winners are not necessarily the best on paper, but those who can hold their nerve and persevere when it matters most. Mentality here is just as big a factor as skillset and this could prove to be the difference between some of the pairs at the group stage.
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